How A CTA May Use Volatility To Set Protective Stops

A non-high-tech measure of *historical volatility is given by the range of market prices over the course of a trading interval, this is usually a day or a week. The range of prices is defined as the difference between the high and the low for that given trading interval. If the range of the current day lies beyond the range of the previous day (Gap- up or down) the current days range must include the distance between the current days range and yesterday’s close. This is what is referred to as the “True Range”. The true range for a gap-down day is the difference between yesterday’s settlement price and today’s low. On the flip side, the true range for a gap-up day is the difference between today’s high and the previous day’s settlement price.

To grind this down a bit further, a tick is the smallest increment by which prices can move in a given futures or commodity market. The next step would be to translate the dollar value for 1 tick in the given market being traded, (Ex: The minimum tick value in corn futures is $12.50 or ¼ cent). To use corn data as an example, data shows that 90 percent of all observations between 2004- 2014 had a daily true range equal to or less than 26 ¼ cents. Therefore a CTA who was long corn futures, may want to set a protective sell stop 26 ¼ cents below the previous days close, as the probability of being whip-sawed out of the market are 1 in 10. Similarly, a CTA who had short sold corn would want to set their stop at least 26 ¼ cents above the previous day’s closing price. The dollar value for this stop would be $1,312.50 per contract, in corn.

Now, instead of concentrating on the true range for a day or a week, it may be more suitable and efficient for a CTA to work with the average true range over the past “N” trading sessions, wherein “N” is any number found to be most effective through back testing their trading methodology (Ex: 9 days, 20 days, 4 weeks, etc.). The theory is that the range for the past “N” periods is a more reliable and consistent indicator of volatility as compared to the true range from the immediately preceding trading session. An example would be to calculate the average true range over the past 20 trading sessions in corn futures and to use this number for placing protective stops. As an aside, this philosophy could be flipped around and be used for entry, which I’ll cover in a future article.

As one last example this average true range methodology could be slightly modified by working with a fraction or multiple of the volatility estimate. Ex: A CTA might want to set their protective stop equal to 150 percent of the average true range for the past “N” trading sessions, (The famous Turtle traders used this methodology by taking the 20-day average true range and then setting their stops equal to 200 percent or 2x this number). The theory is that the fraction or multiple enhances and increases the probability of not being taken out of a valid trade due to market “noise”.

*Historical Volatility – HV’ is the realized volatility of a financial instrument over a given time period. Generally, this measure is calculated by determining the average deviation from the average price of a financial instrument in the given time period.

How Many Mental Blocks To Investing Do You Have? Is a Managed Account the Answer?

Normal CTA’s, financial specialists, and individuals by and large have a mind-boggling longing to be “correct”. Who likes to not be right? You read and hear it consistently from companions, kindred merchants, (mates), that it is so vital to be correct, particularly when they make a business sector forecast or, far more atrocious when they put genuine cash into an exchange.

The measure of data which a normal CTA is presented to and needs to handle every day is stunning. Furthermore, the investigative certainty is that the human personality can just concentrate on one thing at once and take in just such a great amount of data before it is lost. That is the manner by which proficient Magicians/”Road Hustlers” bring home the bacon – Misdirection. They get your mind concentrated on one-thing while they’re pulling off their terrific dream without you notwithstanding having the scarcest intimation how they did it. Accordingly we have a tendency to create “alternate routes” to speculation and picturing helping us adapt to the huge number of data we are constantly presented to. These “alternate ways” are extremely valuable under most circumstances, however the suggestions for speculators or CTA’s of this mentalities can be most hindering, and make the likelihood of being effective in the business sectors for all intents and purposes zero, unless he or she can manage these “trolls”. The “trolls” I am alluding to are mental predispositions which are a piece of everybody’s make-up and out and out human instinct, and there are 13 (fortunate number), of them which I will list for you and give a brief clarification.

#1: Reliability Bias: This is an inclination where a man may accept something to be precise when it conceivably may not be. Illustration: Statistics and data you may use for back-testing or that comes to you crosswise over CNBC, Bloomberg, or the web are all the time loaded with mistakes. Unless you can get up in the morning and realize that the likelihood for terrible information and deception can and exists, it will set you up to make incalculable mistakes in your exchanging and contributing choices.

#2: Lotto Bias: Every CTA or speculator where it counts needs to “control” the business sectors and particularly value activity, thus most absolutely concentrate on “Passage”, where they can constrain the business sector to do a ton of things before they hop in. Be that as it may, once the position is set up, value activity is going to do what it will do. As Ed Seykota said: The brilliant tenet to exchanging is “Cut misfortunes, Cut misfortunes, Cut misfortunes, and afterward you may have a shot”.

#3: Representation Bias: CTA’s and financial specialists will accept that when something should speak to something else, that it is reality. Along these lines they accept that a day by day candle graph is the whole market or that a Fibonacci number is the whole picture. Rather, that is truly only an alternate way to interpreting a mess of data.

#4: Randomness Bias: Investor’s and some CTA’s affection to expect that the business sector is irregular and has numerous examples (twofold bottoms, Head and shoulders, Spikes, and so forth.) that are effectively tradable. Nonetheless, as I would see it the business sectors are not arbitrary. Value circulation shows that after some time markets have a vast difference, or what folks with PHD’s. call “long tails” toward the end of a Bell Curve. What they neglect to comprehend is that even “irregular markets” can have long “streaks” and therefore attempting to pick tops and bottoms can be a street to calamity.

#5: Law-of-little numbers Bias: CTA’s, financial specialists and merchants alike tend to see “designs” where truly none exist, and in all actuality it just takes maybe a couple events of this “example” to demonstrate and persuade a man that it is a “truth”. When you make a mixed drink of this specific inclination, with a Conservatism Bias (read underneath) it could make a virtual tinderbox prepared to go up on fire.

#6: Conservatism Bias: Once a broker or CTA trusts they have found an “example” and is persuaded it works (by method for filtering out or specific memory), they will do everything under the sun to stay away from situations, circumstances, and affirmation that it doesn’t work.

#7: A “Need-to-Understand” Bias: Every CTA or dealer has a need to endeavor to make request out of value activity in the business sectors and discover a basis and purpose for it. This exertion, to “discover request” will impede that CTA’s capacity to take the path of least resistance or take after the pattern on the grounds that, for absence of a superior expression, see what they need to see as opposed to what is genuinely happening before their eyes.

These are the initial 7 out of 13 exchanging/contributing inclinations that numerous CTA’s and merchants are inclined to. Once more, it is incorporated with our DNA and is human instinct. Knowing and acknowledging them is the primary key to opening the way to better contributing and change. I will catch up tomorrow with the rest of the 6 inabilities to think straight that might keep you away from above normal returns in the business sectors.

Silver and The Mechanics of False Reality

“All truth passed through three stages: First it is ridiculed. Second it is violently opposed. Third it is accepted as being self evident”. – Arthur Schopenhauer

Once the truth about silver value becomes evident, it will probably be time to move on.

For now, watching price action can be torture.

How many of you over the past 4, 5, 10 or more years have experienced the following?

Every time you buy – the price gets clobbered.

If you are new, it’s more likely that you are happy.

Happy to be here, at this low level. Happy accumulate at this once in a lifetime moment.

Yet, once you’ve followed these markets for a while, you find yourself experiencing a series of tests. Every long term investor pays dues.

The powers that be would want to protect the markets at all costs.

Thousands of years, and one monetary cycle after the other reveals that those in power on are on a quest to poison the canary.

In the old days, coin clipping was enough. Confiscation might be eventually employed. Or simply removing it from the system all together was an option.

Modern trading and speculation make it much easier. Open cry futures markets gave way to pure electronic systems. Regulators were captured. Now, no one knows the value of anything.

For the new investor, enjoy the temporarily low prices while you can.

World silver prices currently arise from the futures market. Specifically the COMEX, run by the for-profit CME.

The participants are not who you think they are. The days of real producers and users are long gone.

The primary players who are left consist of big commercial banks and hedge funds.

Big is an understatement. These commercial traders are among the largest multinational financial institutions in the world. They are too big to bail, too big to fail.

They broker the trades for the collective group of speculators, or hedge funds they snooker.

There are two levels by which these traders game the price.

The first level can be seen by observing the week to week action detailed in the Commitment of Traders report. We can see the foot prints left behind and the evidence that the managed money traders act as one collective entity – following price momentum blindly – and as directed by the big banks.

The big commercial banks have access to the most sophisticated trading tools available. They can move the market in any direction they want without clearing an order.

They also happen to be the prime broker for the very same managed money traders they control.

In the past, 1 or 2 – and sometimes more – of these big traders has been able to amass a very large selling position – adding even more inertia to it’s ability to influence price.

This is of course, first and foremost, a profitable operation. Illegal, but profitable. Secondarily it serves the needs of government and the currency.

The second level of manipulation occurs on the day to day action. Usually it’s in the early mornings, when the bulk of world traders are away from their desks.

Thanks to forensic trade analysis, by the likes of NANEX, we can see the moment by moment action – the actual volume spikes indicating fake orders – false dawns.

The false assumption is that these false market conditions give rise to price.

And this price drives commentary. It tells the story of fundamentals – instead of the other way round. Yes, it ‘works’ the same way across all markets. Until it ends in disaster.

Our unique advantage is that we can see it all developing in real time.

And we are early. Everyone else will see the same thing we do – just much later.

The belief is that these traders – these managers of others people’s money – with their open futures positions, can see or anticipate some hidden truth.

As if they have clairvoyance by virtue of their status and power.

But fiduciary ‘standard of care’ dictates the opposite.

They have an obligation to conform.

Subjective description or commentary arises from attempts at objectification, via technical analysis – in the name of this fiduciary responsibility.

The heard of speculators trade as one, using cheap leverage to game positions – (naked derivatives) – and follow pure directional momentum with no intention of taking delivery.

The initial move (up or down) is dictated by the largest players. The brokers of the brokers.

Again, the irony is that it is all documented. Out in the open – free for all to see.

Instead commentary will ramble on with rationalizations of a false reality.

What we see in the day to day is an HFT – spoof traded affair.

Specs are induced into selling – yet the trades never clear.

At the end of the week, we get the market structure report. But not before the sentiment is established. And the talking heads have a field day explaining why.

How can we utilize the probability this intervention creates? Can we game these cycles that appear as a result of such predictive behavior?

Unfortunately, once enough of us recognize it, it will be too late.

By the time the normal buying starts – the price could easily be far out of reach for the average investor.

And given the action of one of the biggest commercial banks, JPM – in obtaining an unusually long physical position, as they control price, that time may be closer than we think.

Oil Is Up 80% And It’s Just Getting Started

After a 80% rally, numerous financial specialists would search for an inversion, perhaps notwithstanding for a chance to short the benefit.

This is not a period.

Truth be told, this is not a rally you need to short by any stretch of the imagination, however one you need to purchase.

Despite the fact that this product has surged more than 80% subsequent to bottoming in February of this current year, it could without much of a stretch surge another 100% from here.

Obviously, I’m discussing unrefined petroleum…

What’s more, subsequent to bottoming prior this year, unrefined has now surpassed the $51-per-barrel mark interestingly since July 2015.

This late hop is only the start of an any longer, and much higher, move in unrefined costs.

A few late bits of information bolster rising costs, not falling ones.

One specifically that got my attention is that oil organizations sliced investigation spending plans by $250 billion in 2015, and are relied upon to cut another $300 billion this year.

Soon supply will never again be an issue with regards to cost, as existing wells begin to moderate and new wells aren’t lined up to begin creating.

The following information point to watch now is interest. That lets us know oil will rally, and it’s the reason we need to claim related stocks.

Sudden Demand

A late report by BP on different insights in the vitality markets, titled BP Statistical Review, gives us one bit of imperative information.

In light of its measurements, 2015 was the first run through since 1999 that oil picked up piece of the overall industry. That is colossal! It implies that was interest strong, as well as it really was being utilized as a part of spot of other vitality assets more without precedent for a long time.

Request ascended at almost twofold its late recorded normal, at a pace of 1.9%.

Recollect that, this information covers 2015, when unrefined dove another 30% after 2014’s 44% drop. The standard media outlets persuaded that worldwide interest was winding down, and oil was set for another maintainable low level. Not the situation.

The International Energy Agency likewise appeared in the principal quarter of this current year that oil utilization is becoming quicker than examiners had anticipated. The gauge was for 1.2 million barrels of oil for each day, yet genuine interest was 16% higher at 1.4 million barrels of oil for each day.

Plainly request is vigorous, and we definitely know supply is set to shrivel in view of the slices to new disclosures.

In any case, only this previous week, we got further affirmation from the world’s greatest rough exporter, Saudi Arabia.

The state-claimed Saudi Arabian Oil reported it was raising the cost of oil that it offers to Asia for the second sequential month in the midst of expanded interest in the district.

Interest is rising, and you need to possess this rally.

A Rising Oil Tide…

Today, unrefined sits at simply above $50, which is 80% off the lows it hit not long ago.

However, with interest staying hearty, oil has a lot of space to run higher. Right now is an ideal opportunity to snatch any related stock since this rally isn’t a detached occasion.

A surge in the cost of rough lifts everything from a minor investigation stock to a mammoth like BP with it.

As oil keeps on taking off from here, these stocks will ascend in comparable style, giving you conceivable triple-digit picks up.